دانلود رایگان مقاله تحلیل پشتیبانی متخصصان اتمی فرایند تصمیم گیری برای حفاظت از مردم

ABSTRACT

Nowadays, strategies to protect population in the early phase of a nuclear crisis consist in three main actions: sheltering, evacuation and iodine pills ingestion. These actions are supposed to be guided by two successive decision-making strategies: triggering reflex actions in pre-planned perimeters in the near field around the accident and then, achieving spatial estimation of doses received by the general public (expressed in Sievert) along the situation development to adapt the actions. Through the observation of four nuclear exercises in France, this paper aims to study the population protection decision making process in the early phase of a severe nuclear accident. This study underlines the existence of a potential intermediate episode in the population protection strategy and how it is currently managed by civilian security and nuclear experts in an emergency situation. We argue that in case of a large nuclear accident, nuclear expertise is essential and not sufficient to take decisions for protecting population.

Chapter 4:

Discussion and conclusion Although they cannot be considered as representative of all nuclear and radiological crisis management exercises, the four ones observed in this study contributed to enrich the understanding of the co-construction of a situation assessment between nuclear experts and civilian protection decision makers. The first outcome of this paper is to underline, that an intermediate management episode can take place during the crisis when managers are still waiting for dose calculations. This episode appears in addition to the two main population protection strategies defined in the nuclear response plans: reflex actions and decisions based on dose calculations. During a nuclear emergency situation, first population decisions are based on pre-planned perimeters. These pre-planned perimeters are based on the use of national-level nuclear expertise beforehand; they allow a quick reaction of emergency managers in the absence of expertise. The analysis illustrates that reflex actions may be triggered by local stakeholders for the population protection response to match the event kinetic. By consequence, at the decision maker level, the implementation of these first actions mainly contributes to its situation assessment of the most plausible scenario occurring regarding the potential dynamics and risks of the current situation.