دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی کاربرد شبکه های بیزی در تجزیه و تحلیل خطرات ورشکستگی حمل و نقل با تانکر - امرالد 2017

Abstract

Purpose – This study aims to develop an assessment methodology using a Bayesian network (BN) to predict the failure probability of oil tanker shipping firms. Design/methodology/approach – This paper proposes a bankruptcy prediction model by applying the hybrid of logistic regression and Bayesian probabilistic networks. Findings – The proposed model shows its potential of contributing to a powerful tool to predict financial bankruptcy of shipping operators, and provides important insights to the maritime community as to what performance measures should be taken to ensure the shipping companies’ financial soundness under dynamic environments. Research limitations/implications – The model and its associated variables can be expanded to include more factors for an in-depth analysis in future when the detailed information at firm level becomes available. Practical implications – The results of this study can be implemented to oil tanker shipping firms as a prediction tool for bankruptcy rate. Originality/value – Incorporating quantitative statistical measurement, the application of BN in financial risk management provides advantages to develop a powerful early warning system in shipping, which has unique characteristics such as capital intensive and mobile assets, possibly leading to catastrophic consequences.

5. Discussions and conclusions

After the sub-prime mortgage crises in 2007-2009 in the USA, the maritime sector has experienced a dramatic downturn in the shipping cycle. While how shipping companies respond to supply and demand imbalance remains unclear, the concern of oversupply and the high leverage ratios increases the uncertainties and further exposes shipping companies to unforeseen risks. We focus on the tanker shipping sector because we observed more companies tend to choose Chapters 11, 13 and 15 bankruptcy laws to have access to restructure their debts to pay their creditors.

This study develops a conceptual assessment methodology using a BN to predict failure or underperformance of oil tanker shipping firms. We provide a comprehensive review of the current literature of statistical and non-statistical risk assessment methods. We demonstrate step by step on how to build a qualitative BN model. Further, we identify critical factors in a hierarchical interdependent relationship using correlation analysis and provide foundation to establish a simplified discrete BN. It can be used to provide useful insights for shipping companies to prevent themselves from financial risks.