دانلود رایگان مقاله درک ارزش از اجرای پروژه تحت عدم قطعیت: یک مطالعه اکتشافی با استفاده از دینامیک سیستم

Abstract

Project Implementation is not a trivial task even after careful planning and scheduling. One of the reasons is the existence of unexpected events at strategic and operational levels during the project execution process. This paper presents a system dynamics model of a project monitoring and control system. Embedded with both strategic and tactical uncertainties, the model experiments with typical remedial actions to disturbances during the implementation of a project under a behavioral paradigm. Simple proportional adjustment seems to work well under low levels of unexpected disturbances but prospect theory-based behavior works better under extreme situations. Our findings indicate over-reacting behavior, which is influenced by biases and reporting errors, can generate project escalation. Thus, thresholds for remedial actions should be implemented in project control and monitoring systems to avoid over-reacting behavior leading to escalation and waste of resources.

6. Discussion

6.1. Remedial actions and project escalation The preceding experiments show two types of losses occurring during the implementation of projects under uncertainty: unrealized value and excessive value. These losses can be perceived as project failures when the value perceived is not aligned with the expected goals (White and Fortune, 2002). Remedial actions are usually taken to compensate the deviation. However, remedial actions are not one size fits all solutions.