دانلود رایگان مقاله ماهیت تحقیق پیش بینی استراتژیک بررسی ادبی سیستماتیک

abstract

Strategic foresight is a scientific field in rapid development judged from the increase in number of yearly publications the last decade. What characterizes the research in this field? To answer this question we undertook a systematic literature review searching two library databases, Business Source Complete and ScienceDirect, for scientific articles related to the topic ´strategic foresight´ in the context of the organization. The search revealed 59 publications published between January 2000 and October 2014. The articles were systematically organized and analyzed. This review provides the status of this emergent research field. Although we witness a growth of academic interest in strategic foresight, we argue that this scientific field is weakly organized and there is a lack of theoretical progress. We have analyzed the research subjects addressed in the 59 articles, and from this a taxonomy of eight categories. Three categories dominate in terms of frequency of articles: methods applied, organizing practices, and experiences gained. There is only limited research on motivation and use, value contribution, and innovation. Explorative research dominates, and a variety of theoretical perspectives has been used. Some attempts to build conceptual foundations can be observed, but in general, we found no single perspective that deserves loyalty on which a coherent theoretical foundation of strategic foresight is built. Strategic foresight has a great potential of contributing more to the success of a firm if the research moves from today's dominating explorative research to also include more explanatory research.

4. Discussion

In this section, we analyze findings from current research in order to answer research question 5: What conclusions can be drawn from existing research? In our analysis, we focused on the three main subjects: Adoption, Approach, and Outcome. 4.1. Adoption 4.1.1. Use of strategic foresight and motivation Research has studied the attractiveness of strategic foresight at two levels of analysis: the national and regional level and the business sector level. At the national and regional level, we identified two studies. In a 2008 survey that included 44 large European firms (A13), the researcher found that an overwhelming majority of the participants had many years' experience with strategic foresight. Fifty percent of the responding companies had run their own foresight process for up to 10 years, and about 25% for up to 3 years. In contrast, a 2013 survey found that the practice of foresight in Tunisian companies was limited but that interest was increasing (A42). We identified one study at the business sector level, a 2009 multiple-case study among 30 biotechnological firms in Germany (A25). This study concluded that the application of strategic foresight was low, even by companies already using it to some extent.