دانلود رایگان مقاله اندازه گیری اعتماد بیش از حد به تصمیمات مدیریت موجودی

abstract

Overconfidence has emerged as a significant explanation of behaviour in diverse managerial settings. In this paper, we explore the relevance of overconfidence for supply chain management by running a series of human experiments within the framework of the classic Beer Game. Unlike previous experimental studies, participants were knowledgeable about supply chain management, either being graduate students in Operations Management or purchasing professionals. Results of the study support the view that overconfidence may lead supply chain professionals to be less careful in the management of inventories and thus incur more costs. A first implication for organizations is that purchasing professionals should be trained to discount their expectations of success by removing this optimistic bias. A second is the importance of providing managers and employees with benchmarks that allow them to assess correctly their performance in relative terms. The study also underlines the effect of environmental uncertainty as an important contextual factor influencing overconfident behaviour.

6. Discussion

Results from the beer game experiments provide answers to the three research questions relating to the overconfidence exhibited by buyers, the impact of environmental uncertainty on overconfidence, and the impact of overconfidence on inventory management. Results in both experimental manipulations (low/ high uncertainty) provide evidence that decision makers exhibit overconfidence in their ordering decisions. Further, the study underlines the effect of uncertainty as a relevant contextual variable affecting the presence and strength of overconfidence. Finally, the study supports the view that overconfidence may lead purchasing professionals to be less careful in the management of supplies and thus incur more costs. In what follows, we discuss each of these results, and derive implications for academic research and supply management.