تلفن: ۰۴۱۴۲۲۷۳۷۸۱
تلفن: ۰۹۲۱۶۴۲۶۳۸۴

دانلود رایگان مقاله اندازه گیری اعتماد بیش از حد به تصمیمات مدیریت موجودی

عنوان فارسی: اندازه گیری اعتماد بیش از حد به تصمیمات مدیریت موجودی
عنوان انگلیسی: Measuring overconfidence in inventory management decisions
تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی : 10 تعداد صفحات ترجمه فارسی : ترجمه نشده
سال انتشار : 2016 نشریه : الزویر - Elsevier
فرمت مقاله انگلیسی : PDF کد محصول : E4399
محتوای فایل : PDF حجم فایل : 500 Kb
رشته های مرتبط با این مقاله: مدیریت
مجله: مجله مدیریت خرید و تامین - Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management
دانشگاه: دانشکده مهندسی عمران و معماری، دانشگاه کاتانیا، ایتالیا
کلمات کلیدی: زنجیره تامین، مدیریت موجودی، مدیریت ریسک، اعتماد بیش از حد
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چکیده

abstract

Overconfidence has emerged as a significant explanation of behaviour in diverse managerial settings. In this paper, we explore the relevance of overconfidence for supply chain management by running a series of human experiments within the framework of the classic Beer Game. Unlike previous experimental studies, participants were knowledgeable about supply chain management, either being graduate students in Operations Management or purchasing professionals. Results of the study support the view that overconfidence may lead supply chain professionals to be less careful in the management of inventories and thus incur more costs. A first implication for organizations is that purchasing professionals should be trained to discount their expectations of success by removing this optimistic bias. A second is the importance of providing managers and employees with benchmarks that allow them to assess correctly their performance in relative terms. The study also underlines the effect of environmental uncertainty as an important contextual factor influencing overconfident behaviour.

نتیجه گیری

6. Discussion

Results from the beer game experiments provide answers to the three research questions relating to the overconfidence exhibited by buyers, the impact of environmental uncertainty on overconfidence, and the impact of overconfidence on inventory management. Results in both experimental manipulations (low/ high uncertainty) provide evidence that decision makers exhibit overconfidence in their ordering decisions. Further, the study underlines the effect of uncertainty as a relevant contextual variable affecting the presence and strength of overconfidence. Finally, the study supports the view that overconfidence may lead purchasing professionals to be less careful in the management of supplies and thus incur more costs. In what follows, we discuss each of these results, and derive implications for academic research and supply management.