5. Conclusions
Ranching is a dynamic socio-ecological system that must adapt to climate variability. Drought, especially if widespread, sets off a chain of ecological and economic effects within the system. Ranchers handle these climate risks in several ways. They diversify their operations, purchase insurance, and make short-term drought adaptation investments like buying extra feed or seeking additional pasturage. Over the long term they may stock conservatively, so there is sufficient forage for the herd even when rainfall drops, or they can stock at higher rates but be ready to adapt quickly to periods of drought by reducing forage demand (e.g., by destocking) or increasing forage supply (e.g., by buying supplemental feed). The conservative stocking strategy may be optimal on arid ranges (Thomas et al., 2015) and when information about drought is either not available or costly to obtain. Full carrying capacity stocking with agile adaptation may be optimal if climate information is readily available and easily incorporated into ranchers’ production strategies.
The key climate risk management challenge in ranching is making timely decisions while a slow-onset drought unfolds. To meet this challenge, ranchers need accurate assessments of drought conditions as they develop. In reviewing ranching decision structures and the current availability of drought information necessary to make adaptation investments by crucial decision points in the season, we conclude that drought forecasts, due to their limited skill (Hoerling et al., 2012), are not as useful to ranchers as highly accurate information about current drought conditions. Because drought adaptation investments are often irreversible, ranchers are hesitant to deviate from their normal practices based on information that is highly unreliable. Compared to low-skill forecasts of future conditions, a precise understanding of the current state of drought may be far more valuable. Ranchers already rely on the US Drought Monitor that gives a coarse assessment of drought conditions across the U.S. However, new measures of soil moisture like the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI), the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite, and the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI), as well as the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) can provide clear information about current conditions on their ranches that serve as leading indicators for drought. While ranchers are especially interested in drought conditions on their ranches, they also can use information on drought conditions in other regions so that they can judge how other ranchers and thus cattle markets will respond.
