دانلود رایگان مقاله بهبود ارزیابی ریسک در امکان مالی پروژه های مهندسی بین المللی: چشم انداز محرک ریسک

Abstract

Major engineering projects characterized by intensive technologies and high investment are becoming more complex with increasing risks in a global market. Because incorrect investment decision-making can cause great losses to investors, quantitative risk assessment is widely used in establishing the financial feasibility of projects. However, existing methods focus on the impact of uncertain parameters, such as income, on decision variables of investment, neglecting assessing the impact of risk events, such as the sales of products falling short of expectations. In the context of international engineering projects from a risk driver perspective, this paper presents an improved quantitative risk assessment model to help risk managers identify the direct relationships between specific risk events and decision variables of investment. Stress testing is also introduced to assess the negative impact of extreme risks. The new model is applied to an on-going international petrochemical project to demonstrate its use and validate its applicability and effectiveness.

5. Conclusions

The new advanced quantitative risk assessment model has shown its effectiveness in this Brazilian case. With the help of the model, investors and risk managers now can 1. Assess the influence of both probabilities of occurrence and the impact of specific risk events on decision variables of investment; 2. Quantify the possible loss incurred to the investment outcome in conditions where extreme adverse events can occur; 3. Provide more practical data support for investment decisions concerning international engineering projects.