دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی استفاده از تحلیل سناریوی مبتنی بر TOPSIS فازی برای ارتقا طراحی و پیش بینی ضایعات جامد شهری - الزویر 2018

abstract

In this paper the Canary archipelago is used as a study case to analyse and improve the municipal solid waste (MSW) planning process. The research has been conducted in four steps, namely, the Delphi technique helped to capture the knowledge of the local experts, the fuzzy TOPSIS to rank the MSW treatment methods more consistently, the System Dynamics to design a mathematical model based on MSW official historical data from 1999 up to 2014, and Scenario Analysis to forecast the future evolution of the MSW until 2030 under different policies. According to the results obtained by simulating several possible and desirable scenarios, the model predicts that by maintaining the current policies (Business As Usual scenario), it will be impossible to meet the targets of the MSW European Directive. The model also estimates the annual ratios to be reached for each component of the MSW so that they can comply with the European Directive, e.g. regarding to recycling (Scenario 2) and organic and rest fraction collection (Scenario 3) and the influences of the resident population and the equivalent touristic population on the total MSW generation until 2030. This methodological approach could be replicated in other territories.

7. Conclusions

A more sustainable MSW management requires the selection of the best combination of MSW treatment methods to apply in a given territory and it should also be based on the interests and wishes of the main local stakeholders. Our study show recycling is the most suitable method based on the application of the Fuzzy Topsis method on the criteria established by the stakeholder of the Canary territory. With regard the recycling benefits from environmental and social criteria with respect to other alternatives are taken as the most advisable option the method of recycling has been identified as the most appropriate method. Landfilling is not favoured in terms of its impact on the environment but it is favoured from the point of view of economic criteria, so it is selected as a second option. Although the European Union wants the discharges to be completely eliminated by 2030, the fact is that given the current ecological situation of the Canary Islands this process will be very slow. From the point of view of MSW managers (public or private), the construction of a landfill could be considered to be an investment. It has to be taken into account that landfilling is an alternative to MSW elimination and allows us to save the costs of other more expensive treatment methods. Furthermore, the biotechnological means are very limited. Thus, landfilling is the cheapest option available albeit with more critical consequences for the environment. This leaves incineration and biomethanisation, which are beneficial from a political perspective but are not favoured from a social perspective, which means that they cannot currently be an alternative treatment for the Canary Islands.