دانلود رایگان مقاله بازده سوخت و انتشار در بخش حمل و نقل جاده چینی: اثر منجر شده و اثر بازپرداخت

abstract

The main objective of this paper is to analysis how endogenous road capacity, in term of an increase in road accessibility and traffic demand (“induced effect”), exogenous efficiency policies and technological progress, in term of an increase in fuel efficiency (“rebound effect”), affect fuel consumption and thereby exhaust emission finally, the empirical estimate a simultaneous equations system of the road traffic demand, fuel consumption, exhaust emission, using the annual data of 1985–2013, we discuss the transmission mechanism of effects caused by road capacity and fuel efficiency policies, and we estimate the induced effect and rebound effect further than the previous studies, and found that the rebound effect and induced effect in China are larger than most studies of the U.S.We also prove the effectiveness of fuel efficiency policies to improve fuel efficiency, however, little help to reduce vehicle emission. In view of the pricing policy, we found that high price of new vehicle cannot inhibit Chinese demand for cars currently, what's more, rising fuel price did not encourage people to purchase energy-saving vehicles in China.

5. Conclusions

This paper have shown that including a measure of vehicle emission in an aggregate traffic system, which helps clarify at least three phenomena of interest to mechanism and policy. First, we confirm the effectiveness of road transport fuel efficiency policies in China, which effect fuel efficiency significantly, while have little help to reduce vehicle emissions, as the repaid expansion of vehicle stock and traffic turnover, we suggest the policy maker focus on the traffic demand structure in the next, and intensify the market-oriented road traffic energy-saving policy, such as the adjustment of fuel cost per-mile, as we found in the empirical estimation, fuel cost per-mile decrease the traffic demand and vehicle stock, which means the fuel cost per-mile is one of the important consideration in the decision of travel or not, and the decision of purchasing energy-saving car or not. Second, we estimate the influence mechanism of road traffic system in China, from road capacity to the vehicle emission, through the traffic demand, fuel consumption, and also the other influence factors, such as fuel price, income, urbanization. Third, we discuss the induced effect and rebound effect more further than the previous studies, which contains three types, and estimated in three different time period.