دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی تخمین محصولات فضای سبز شهری در اقتصاد کلان: ابزار عمومی تا روش سوددهی سرمایه گذاری - الزویر 2018

ABSTRACT

Accompanied by long-term urbanization, the Chinese production of urban green space (UGS) is gradually transforming into a land operation strategy for local governments to maximize land lease revenue. This paper presents empirical research on different types of investment, urban space, and gross domestic product (GDP) with a simultaneous equations model (SEM) of econometrics to test the capital circulation and accumulation of UGS production in China. The regression results strongly support our hypothesis that UGS production contributes to GDP growth and that there is an economic feedback loop between them. One billion RMB of the government’s fixed-asset investments produces 0.899 km2 UGS in the long term, and this UGS yields 1.749 billion RMB tertiary industry GDP in return. Thus, the total return rate in the representative economic chain of “fixed-asset investment-UGS-tertiary industry GDP” is greater than 174.9%. However, this percentage also reveals the weakness of providing rewards in maximizing land lease relative to urban industrial, traffic and residential spaces. We also estimate the lagged correlation coefficient with a rational distributed lag model, showing that the production of UGS has a longer-term and more profitable influence on tertiary industry GDP than on secondary industry GDP. The long-run effect of investment on UGS lasts for approximately five years in producing secondary industry GDP and more than ten years in producing tertiary industry GDP. A continuous increase in fixed-asset investments in UGS would achieve a balanced return rate (100%) and start to produce profits after the 4th year, according to the economic chain of ΔFAI-ΔUGS-ΔTGDP.

5. Conclusions

This research provides a test among investment, urban space, and GDP using a simultaneous SEM of econometrics, incorporating an RDL model to test the capital circulation and accumulation of UGS production with an FD data treatment method. The primary hypothesis is that UGS production is an important driver of GDP, which goes beyond the existing findings that GDP is a driving force behind UGS production (Chen and Wang, 2013a; Chen and Hu, 2015; Zhao et al., 2013). In fact, our regression results reveal an economic feedback loop between UGS and GDP, and our results shed light on the accurate economic costs and profits of UGS production during the fast-growing urbanization process in China.

In the three-equation SEM, 1 billion RMB of the government’s fixedasset investments produce 0.486 km2 of UGS in the first year and 0.697 km2 of UGS in a long period of time. Newly produced UGS has created a large economic profit. 1 km2 of newly built UGS can yield 1.170 billion RMB GDP in the first year and 1.792 billion RMB GDP in a long period of time. Overall, the results confirm the original hypothesis that UGS production is a profitable capital accumulation process in macroeconomy combined with the socialistic system.