دانلود رایگان مقاله تغییر ویژگی های جنگ و آینده تحقیق و توسعه نظامی

abstract

Wars have been a part of humanity since prehistoric times, and are expected to remain an important component of future human societies. Since the beginning of the history wars have evolved in parallel with the changes in Society, Technology, Economy, Environment, Politics and Values (STEEPV). The changing circumstances unavoidably affect the characteristics of warfare through its motivations, shape and size. Armies have adapted themselves to these changing characteristics of warfare through Revolutions in Military Affairs (RMAs) by introducing new military concepts and technologies. Based on the overview of the evolution of military technologies and concepts as a response to changing conditions, the aim of the present study is to anticipate what and how future technologies and concepts will shape warfare and drive impending RMAs. To answer this question, first the RMA literature is reviewed within a broader historical context to understand the extent to which military concepts and technologies affected the RMAs. Then, a time-based technological trend analysis is conducted through the analysis of military patents to understand the impact of technological developments on military concepts. Following the historical analyses, two scenarios are developed for the future of military R&D based on ‘concept-driven’ and ‘technology-driven’ factors. The article is concluded with a discussion about the implications of future scenarios for military R&D, and likely RMAs through the changes of concepts and technologies, and possible consequences such as transformations in organizational structures of armies, new skill and capacity requirements, military education systems, and decision-making processes.

7. Discussion and conclusions

In light of the discussion above, it may not be an overstatement to say that the armies are getting closer to a new RMA. Fundamental changes are being observed in the external contexts of warfare including Societies, Technologies, Economy, Environment, Politics and Values/Cultures (STEEPV). The emergence of learning societies enriched the diversity of lifestyles and levels of development in the world, and as a result increasing ‘asymmetry’ in the balance of powers. The use of increasing Information and Communication Technologies with an increasing information intensity of daily lives has generated various new opportunities. In parallel, the historical review and patent analysis have already given the ‘weak signals’ of a change in the meaning of military power, which is clearly shifting from the use of forces towards the use of information. In this respect warfare is becoming more focused on disobedient civilians than enemy armies of other countries. This will undoubtedly change the nature of military operations. The two scenarios presented above have described these changes from ‘concept-driven’ and ‘technology-driven’ perspectives with their implications on military R&D.