دانلود رایگان مقاله چرخه تجاری بازار غیر رسمی و نرخ های در کشورهای نوظهور

Abstract

This paper recognizes the importance of a large informal economy and interest rate fluctuations for business cycles in emerging countries. I document (1) a positive relationship between the relative volatility of consumption to output and the size of the informal economy, and (2) countercyclical interest rates in emerging countries. I show that in a two-sector real business cycle model of a small open economy with a poorly measured informal sector, an increase in country interest rate generates a contraction in output, consumption, investment, hours, an improvement in trade balance-to-output ratio, and an expansion of informal sector.

6 Conclusion

This paper emphasizes the differences in business cycles between EC and DC and the importance of the informal economy and interest rate fluctuations. It documents the negative relationship between relative volatility of consumption to output and the size of the the informal economy, and also the countercyclicality of interest rates and the trade balanceto-output ratio in EC. The work suggests that the main reason why EC face a relative volatility of consumption to output greater than one is a presence of large informal sector that is poorly measured. I construct a two-sector real business cycle model in a small open economy setting where formal sector firms are subject to the working capital constraint and face country spread and sector-specific productivity shocks. The analysis shows that a model calibrated to Argentine and Mexican data does a fair job of capturing the key patterns of business cycles in these countries.