دانلود رایگان مقاله پیچیدگی، عدم قطعیت و مدل های ذهنی: ساخت پارادایمی برای پارادایم ظهور در مدیریت پروژه

Abstract

In project management research, it is acknowledged that two perspectives on project performance must be considered: project efficiency (delivering efficient outputs) and project success (delivering beneficial outcomes). The first perspective is embedded in a deterministic paradigm of project management, while the second appears more naturally connected to the emerging non-deterministic paradigm. Complexity and uncertainty are key constructs frequently associated with the non-deterministic paradigm. This conceptual paper suggests that these two concepts could very well explain and define particularities of both paradigms, and seeks to articulate both perspectives in a contingent model. First, the constructs of complexity and uncertainty are clarified. Second, the role of project managers' mental models in managerial decisionmaking is considered. In the third part of this article, we propose a theoretical model suggesting that project managers should consider contingent variables to differentiate managerial conditions of regulation from managerial conditions of emergence.

7. Discussion and conclusion

The systemic model presented in this paper shows the contingency nature of project management systems where degrees of uncertainty and of complexity are embedded, uncertainty being a characteristic of the management subsystem, and complexity being a characteristic of the projectmanagement system, combining the management and production sub-systems. In this theoretical model of project management, the paradigm of regulation is clearly related to the deterministic paradigm of project management (Padalkar and Gopinath, 2016b) that one can associate with the operationalproject perspective (Turner et al., 2010). Consequently, project managers applying the PMI's execution-based model should verify the conditions of stability of the project's production systems (inputs, outputs and outcomes). Without such requirements, the planning–implementing–controlling paradigm of regulation is inappropriate, because of management models that are unable to predict – or unable to detect – an error in the production systems. In the theoretical model, the paradigm of emergence is related to the non-deterministic paradigm of project management. It emphasizes a project management theory based on modelling–experimenting–learning processes, built on imperfect management models. We believe that the paradigm of emergence would be fruitful to improve the strategic project perspective (Turner et al., 2010).