دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی به سوی 5G: ارزیابی سناریویی عرضه و تقاضای آینده برای زیر ساخت ارتباطات مخابراتی موبایل - الزویر 2018

ABSTRACT

Moving from 4G LTE to 5G is an archetypal example of technological change. Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) who fail to adapt will likely lose market share. Hitherto, qualitative frameworks have been put forward to aid with business model adaptation for MNOs facing on the one hand increasing traffic growth, while on the other declining revenues. In this analysis, we provide a complementary scenario-based assessment of 5G infrastructure strategies in relation to mobile traffic growth. Developing and applying an open-source modelling framework, we quantify the uncertainty associated with future demand and supply for a hypothetical MNO, using Britain as a case study example. We find that over 90% of baseline data growth between 2016 and 2030 is driven by technological change, rather than demographics. To meet this demand, spectrum strategies require the least amount of capital expenditure and can meet baseline growth until approximately 2025, after which new spectrum bands will be required. Alternatively, small cell deployments provide significant capacity but at considerable cost, and hence are likely only in the densest locations, unless MNOs can boost revenues by capturing value from the Internet of Things (IoT), Smart Cities or other technological developments dependent on digital connectivity.

6. Conclusion

Rapid technological innovation in mobile telecommunications affects our ability to accurately forecast long-term capacity and demand, making it essential that rigorous examination of this uncertainty is both quantified and visualised to support decision-making. The analysis presented here can help MNOs, SME digital economy firms and government institutions understand the implications of increasing demand (particularly the economic implications) resulting from change in both per user traffic and demographics. Additionally, quantified assessment of the performance of different 5G supply-side strategies were presented as ways for MNOs to cope with dynamic mobile traffic growth.

We find that increasing per user traffic resulting from technological change has a major impact on future demand, whereas demographic change (fertility, mortality and migration) has only a minor effect. For example, in the baseline scenario only 8% of the growth in data for 2016 to 2030 resulted from demographic change, whereas 92% was from per user data demand. Hence, technological progress accounts for > 90% of the growth in total data demand. Consequently, technological forecasters should be encouraged to focus on refining per user data demand, rather than devoting time to developing population projections, contrasting strongly with energy or transport systems.