دانلود رایگان مقاله رونق و رکود در حبابهای قیمتی در بازار مسکن

Abstract

We study a housing market with household buyers, speculative investors and property developers in a Walrasian scenario. We show that in addition to the factors that affect the real demand of household buyers and the development cost of property developers, investors' speculative behavior is an important factor explaining housing price evolution and dynamics. In particular, investors' extrapolative expectations may drive the housing price to persistently deviate from its benchmark value and even to explode. In contrast, investors' mean-reverting strategy can balance out the position of trend extrapolators, which may stabilize an otherwise explosive housing market. Moreover, the evolutionary process of housing prices driven by investors' speculative behavior is path-dependent in the sense that different initial market conditions may result in different price paths, which corresponds to the localization property empirically documented in the real housing market. In addition, within the stylized model, we provide some policy implications through analyzing the limitation and effectiveness of policy adjustments via down payment and development cost, and find that the decrease of development cost is a better measure to adjust the housing market when it booms or busts.

6. Conclusion

We study a housing pricing model with heterogeneous agents including house buyers, investors and property developers. Each agent maximizes his/her own objective subject to financial constraints. House buyers want to maximize their consumption utility based on consumption goods and real demands of houses when they are able to make down payments of the houses they buy. Investors make investment decisions in order to maximize their wealth's mean-variance utility based on their speculative expectations. Property developers supply houses to maximize their profit. Without speculative investors, the equilibrium housing price is determined by real cost and demand, which serves as a benchmark price. In contrast, because of the existence of speculative behavior, the equilibrium housing price may persistently deviate from the benchmark level and even explode..