دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی بحث ویژه" زلزله ی مارماریا: کاهش بلای طبیعی، ترمیم و اخطار قبلی" - اشپرینگر 2017

Te Marmara Sea, accommodating the fault segments of a major transform fault, is well known as a seismic gap along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), running through the northern part of Turkey and connecting the East Anatolian convergent area with the Hellenic subduction zone (e.g., Pınar 1943; Toksöz et al. 1979; Pondard et al. 2007; Şengör et  al. 2014). It is obvious from historical records spanning more than 2000  years that the region is subject to frequent strong shaking that is likely associated with tsunami waves, threatening heavily populated and industrialized locations (Ambraseys 2002; Erdik et al. 2004; Hébert et al. 2005). In the twentieth century, magnitude (M) 7-class earthquakes sequentially occurred from east to west along the NAF zone, as shown in Fig. 1 (Stein et al. 1997). Te last two successive events hit the eastern Marmara region in August 17 and November 12, 1999, known as Izmit (Mw = 7.5) and Düzce (Mw = 7.2) earthquakes, respectively, killing about 20,000 people and devastating the region. On the other hand, at the western edge of Marmara Sea, an M ~ 7 earthquake occurred in 1912, rupturing onshore and ofshore fault segments where 4–5  m lateral displacements were measured (Armijo et  al. 2005; Aksoy et  al. 2010). Furthermore, in the Marmara Sea, it has been considered that the last M7 class earthquake occurred in 1766. With an average slip rate of 2 cm/year, several meters have accumulated over the past 250 years (Straub 1996; Meade et al. 2002). Based on a time-dependent model that includes the coseismic and post-seismic efects of the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake with moment magnitude Mw = 7.4, Parsons (2004) concluded that the probability of an earthquake with Mw > 7 in the Sea of Marmara near Istanbul is 35–70% in the next 30 years.