ترجمه مقاله نقش ضروری ارتباطات 6G با چشم انداز صنعت 4.0
- مبلغ: ۸۶,۰۰۰ تومان
ترجمه مقاله پایداری توسعه شهری، تعدیل ساختار صنعتی و کارایی کاربری زمین
- مبلغ: ۹۱,۰۰۰ تومان
abstract
We employ real-time data available to the US monetary policy makers to estimate a Taylor rule augmented with a measure of financial uncertainty over the period 1969–2008. We find evidence in favor of a systematic response to financial uncertainty over and above that to expected inflation, output gap, and output growth. However, this evidence regards the Greenspan–Bernanke period only. Focusing on this period, the "risk-management" approach is found to be responsible for monetary policy easings for up to 75 basis points of the federal funds rate.
Conclusions
We estimate augmented Taylor rules with real time data which feature a measure of financial uncertainty among the explanatory variables. We find evidence of a significant policy response to financial uncertainty during the Greenspan–Bernanke period. We then propose an estimate of the "risk management-driven policy rate gap", which is the gap between the actual rate and a counterfactual policy rate implemented in absence of risk management. Such a gap is negative, an evidence consistent with a cautious approach (i.e., a loose monetary policy) by the Federal Reserve in presence of financial uncertainty The median value of the policy rate gap is 30 basis points, i.e., close to one standard policy move by the Federal Reserve, but larger values are detected in correspondence of large jumps in financial uncertainty, in particular those occurred in correspondence of the Black Monday and the 2008 credit crunch. Our findings point to the need of understanding how optimal monetary policy should be conducted in presence of uncertainty shocks. Recent attempts along this line are Basu and Bundick (2015) and Seneca (2018).