Discussion
In this study of 12,317 men and women (age 50–73 years, 22% black), measures of loss of vascular integrity (retinopathy) were associated with faster 20-year cognitive decline. In analyses adjusted for attrition, estimates of the difference in rates of 20-year cognitive change for moderate/severe retinopathy and its components ranged from −0.21 to −0.57 SD. Measures of arteriolar changes (CRAE and focal narrowing) were associated with declines in demographicadjusted models but not after full adjustment, perhaps because these signs are simply reflective of the risk factors included in the model. Associations in our study were similar in blacks and whites and in persons with and without diabetes mellitus. To put the magnitude of these associations in perspective, a previous study estimated the 20-year effect of baseline diabetes mellitus on cognitive decline using the same methods to account for informative censoring to be −0.21 SD (95% CI −0.31 to −0.12).19 If retinal signs are adequate surrogates for homologous changes in the brain, these differences could represent reasonable estimates of the otherwise not estimable net contribution of cerebral small vessel disease (including microinfarction) to cognitive decline in older adults, independently of declines due to Alzheimer disease and other processes with a pathogenesis that is not primarily vascular.