دانلود رایگان مقاله طراحی و توسعه سازمانی در یک پروژه تونل راه آهن بزرگ - تاثیر اکتشافات و ماتریس

Abstract

Project Implementation is not a trivial task even after careful planning and scheduling. One of the reasons is the existence of unexpected events at strategic and operational levels during the project execution process. This paper presents a system dynamics model of a project monitoring and control system. Embedded with both strategic and tactical uncertainties, the model experiments with typical remedial actions to disturbances during the implementation of a project under a behavioral paradigm. Simple proportional adjustment seems to work well under low levels of unexpected disturbances but prospect theory-based behavior works better under extreme situations. Our findings indicate over-reacting behavior, which is influenced by biases and reporting errors, can generate project escalation. Thus, thresholds for remedial actions should be implemented in project control and monitoring systems to avoid over-reacting behavior leading to escalation and waste of resources. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. APM and IPMA. All rights reserved.

7. Conclusions

To analyze the impact of uncertainties on project implementation, we developed a system dynamic behavioral model to evaluate the value realization of on-going projects. Our model extracts the fundamental dynamism of project implementation and provides a transparent interpretation for project managers, which can be adapted to projects in multiple industries. We do not focus on the conventional triangle (cost, budget and quality) performance existing in project management literature but provide an open systems frame for strategic project management. Analyzing the possible losses caused by strategic and tactical uncertainties, the impacts of remedial actions and disturbances of behavioral biases are discussed from an individual perspective. Specifically, two unanticipated events are modeled, which gives a clue on how to efficiently response to unexpected crises. The results demonstrate the development of project escalation and the impact of prospect theory, a cornerstone in behavioral economics. We also evaluated the impact of reporting processes on the final results. Therefore our study contributes to three areas: project management under ‘unk unks', the impact of behavioral biases on the achievement of project objectives, and system dynamics applied to project management.