دانلود رایگان مقاله قیمت املاک و مستغلات و رفتار سرمایه گذاری ناهمگن در چین

Abstract

We study the dynamic link between real estate prices and firms' investment behaviors in China using a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The model features heterogeneous production sectors in which private firms face discriminatory borrowing constraints while state-owned firms are not. Fitted to China's quarterly data from 2005Q3 to 2014Q4, the quantitative general equilibrium model enables us to identify the driving forces behind and the macroeconomic variables interacting with land price. It confirms the existence of the “collateral channel” in the private sector without bearing the potential endogeneity problems in empirical studies. More importantly, we identify a “crowding out” channel between private and state-owned firms caused by discriminatory financial constraints. The “crowding out” channel implies a negative relationship between real estate prices and the investment of state-owned firms, which has been documented in empirical research but short of explanation so far.

4. Conclusions

Heterogeneous borrowing constraints in the production sector alters the traditional transmission mechanism of macroeconomic shocks in several aspects. In this paper, we construct a DSGE model including land as a production input with heterogeneous sectors tailored to the China economy, and use it to explain the dynamic link between real land price and heterogeneous investment behavior found in empirical literature. Our quantitative general equilibrium model confirms the existence of the “collateral channel” for private firms in China, in a way that avoids the potential endogeneity problems embedded in existing empirical methods. A new “crowding out” channel has been identified through simulation analysis, which gives a legitimate explanation to the negative relationship between real estate price and state-owned firm's investment. The findings in this paper have important policy implications. For example, the government is advised to take into account accordingly the induced change of investment behavior of the state-owned and private firms before implementing measures to influence real estate price. As the capital reallocation in production sectors may incur unintended welfare loss to the whole economy.