دانلود رایگان مقاله پویایی قیمت در بازار سیاه بلاروس برای ارز خارجی

abstract

Using unique data from an internet-based foreign-exchange trading platform, we show that the black market ef- ficiently incorporated public information on the state of the Belarusian economy during the Balance of Payments crisis of 2011. Between May and October 2011, the government repeatedly devalued the Belarusian ruble and eventually abandoned its fixed exchange rate regime. Measures derived from black market transaction data have significant predictive power for these devaluations. The significance of these black market measures survives even when we include standard macroeconomic indicators in our forecasting model. In line with standard economic theory, activity in the black market has dried up subsequently.

5. Conclusion

Using data from the website Prokopovi.ch, we investigate the relation between black market and official exchange rates during the Belarusian currency crisis of 2011. Prokopovi.ch, which was set up in April 2011, allowed Belarusian citizens to find potential trading partners in the black market for foreign exchange. Technological progress has, thus, helped Belarusians get around government restrictions more easily: the creation of a website like Prokopovi.ch, which reduced transaction costs in the black market, would not have been possible a few years earlier.