دانلود رایگان مقاله مدل سازی و پیش بینی مرکز تماس ورودی بررسی ادبیات و مطالعه موردی ورودی

abstract

The effective management of call centers is a challenging task, mainly because managers consistently face considerable uncertainty. One important source of this uncertainty is the call arrival rate, which is typically time-varying, stochastic, dependent across time periods and call types, and often affected by external events. The accurate modeling and forecasting of future call arrival volumes is a complicated issue which is critical for making important operational decisions, such as staffing and scheduling, in the call center. In this paper, we review the existing literature on modeling and forecasting call arrivals. We also discuss the key issues for the building of good statistical arrival models. In addition, we evaluate the forecasting accuracy of selected models in an empirical study with real-life call center data. We conclude with a summary of possible future research directions in this important field. © 2015 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

5. Conclusions and discussion

The forecasting of call center arrivals plays a crucial role in call center management, for example in determining appropriate staffing levels, scheduling plans and routing policies. The call center arrival process is complex and requires appropriate modeling in order to achieve better forecasting accuracies, leading to more efficient operational decisions. In this survey paper, we have reviewed the existing literature on the modeling and forecasting of call center arrivals. We have also conducted a case study to evaluate several recently proposed forecasting methods using reallife call center data.