دانلود رایگان مقاله تاثیر کلان میکروفایننس در بنگلادش: تجزیه و تحلیل CGE

Abstract

A lot has been written on the impact of microfinance on poverty and well-being at the household level, but little is known about its macro impact. The present paper makes a pioneering attempt to estimate the macro impact of microfinance in Bangladesh. The expansion of microfinance constitutes an important dimension of financial development, which can affect the real economy through multiple channels. The present paper examines how microfinance has affected the gross domestic product (GDP) of Bangladesh by operating through a number of such channels – viz., capital accumulation, productivity improvement, and reallocation of capital and labor among different sectors. A static Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model has been used in order to capture these transmission mechanisms. The study estimates that microfinance has added somewhere between 8.9% and 11.9% to the GDP of the country depending on the assumptions made about the working of the labour market. The contribution to rural GDP is even higher – between 12.6% and 16.6%. There is scope to refine these estimates further in future research by including additional transmission mechanisms and employing a dynamic version of the CGE model.

6. Conclusion

This paper has made the first systematic attempt at measuring the contribution of microfinance to the GDP of Bangladesh. In recognition of the fact that microfinance's contribution to GDP would arise not just from the difference it makes to the incomes of the borrowers but also from its indirect repercussions on the rest of the economy, a general equilibrium approach was adopted. For this purpose, a CGE model was used, the empirical content of which was derived from an updated SAM of Bangladesh with base year of 2012, supplemented by household survey data on the reach and uses of microfinance. Microfinance is used for a variety of purposes, including enterprise financing, asset accumulation, consumption smoothing, meeting unexpected shocks, etc. It was assumed for the purpose of the present study that only the part of microfinance that adds to the capital stock (both fixed and working capital) and improve productivity would contribute to the GDP by enhancing the capacity to generate more goods and services. As such, only the share of microfinance devoted to enterprise financing and housing development was considered relevant for the present study. This share was obtained from household survey data and is based on information given by the borrowers as to how they actually used the loans rather than what they declared on paper to the MFIs.