دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی چرخه رشد موجودی با سرمایه گذاری تحت پوشش بدهی - الزویر 2018

abstract

We propose a continuous-time stock-flow consistent model for inventory dynamics in an economy with firms, banks, and households. On the supply side, firms decide on production based on adaptive expectations for sales demand and a desired level of inventories. On the demand side, investment is determined as a function of utilization and profitability and can be financed by debt, whereas consumption is independently determined as a function of income and wealth. Prices adjust sluggishly to both changes in labour costs and inventory. Disequilibriumbetweenexpected sales and demand is absorbed byunplanned changes in inventory. This results in a five-dimensional dynamical system for wage share, employment rate, private debt ratio, expected sales, and capacity utilization. We analyze two limiting cases: the longrun dynamics provides a version of the Keen model with effective demand and varying inventories, whereas the short-run dynamics gives rise to behaviour that we interpret as Kitchin cycles.

6. Conclusions

In the present article, we have presented a general, albeit complex, stock-flow consistent model for inventory dynamics in a closed monetary economy. The model relies heavily on adapted behaviour of firms regarding expected sales and desired inventory levels. To gain insight, we analyze the model in two specific limiting versions: a long-run dynamics ignoring the effect of instantaneous fluctuations in demand and a short-run one solely driven by these fluctuations.

The long-run dynamics gives rise to a version of the Keen model (Keen, 1995) where demand is not necessarily equal to output. This sheds light on the question of whether the rich set of trajectories obtained in Keen (1995) and related models of debt-financed investment were an artefact of a strictly supply-driven model with no role for Keynesian effect demand. As the above analysis shows, one canrelax the constraints oftheKeenmodel by allowing anindependently specified consumption function and still obtain broadly the same conclusions. The main difference is that the debt crisis, previously characterized by an explosive debt ratio, gets replaced by an equally bad equilibrium with a finite debt ratio but collapsing economy with vanishing wage share and employment rates. In both cases, Minskyan instability arising from financial charges lead to the collapse of profits and an induced debt crisis.