دانلود رایگان مقاله تاثیر حملات ناموفق در بازارهای مالی

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the effect of unsuccessful Somali pirate attacks on financial-market returns in the Arabian Peninsula. Specifically, it tests Leeson's (2010a) reputation-building theory of pirate signaling behavior postulating that unsuccessful pirate attacks may trigger subsequent future attacks by pirates as pirates attempt to maintain and build their reputation for effective piracy. We test this theory empirically by studying the relationship between pirate attacks and financial-market returns in the Arabian Peninsula. The result of our empirical test supports Leeson's theory: unsuccessful pirate attacks are associated with lower financial-market returns, suggesting that market participants expect unsuccessful pirate attacks to be followed by future pirate attacks.

6. Conclusions

Economic theory suggests that pirates’ practices may be explained by sound economic decisions. Pirates act as organized criminals and try to maximize their profits by signaling their reputation through various means such as horror, torture, kidnapping, and attacks. While the direct economic results of pirate attacks are clearly discernible, there has been little examination of the spillover effects of pirate attacks on private financial markets. In this paper, we tested the reputation theory as applied to piracy. By showing that unsuccessful attacks decrease stock market indices, this study concludes that pirates tend to increase the number of attempts after failure in order to restore their reputation. It is argued that stock markets expect future increases in attacks and thus are negatively affected by the failures. As shown in this study, the effects on financial markets during 2005–2011 on the six Arab countries located on the western shores of the Arabian Peninsula was used to find indirect empirical confirmation of the reputation building theory. The results suggest that pirate attacks have significant wealth effects. In particular, unsuccessful attacks have a larger impact on stock market returns than successful attacks. This finding is consistent with the overall expectation about the impact of reputation on return of investment (Carroll, 2013) and more particularly with Leeson's (2010a) reputation building theory, which postulates that pirates aim at establishing reputation by capturing influential figures or attacking ships as these events are frequently highlighted freely in the popular media, allowing them to sustain their reputation, critical for achieving their profit maximization motives. In case of unsuccessful attacks, investors anticipate further attacks as pirates are believed to want to maintain their reputation by increasing the frequency of future attacks to result in more successful ones. Hence, our findings have important implications about pirate behavior and are also consistent with Leeson's (2010a) theory of reputation.