دانلود رایگان مقاله رفتار توده وار پیش بینی چرخه کسب و کار

abstract

Using a large international data set, we analyze whether business cycle forecasters herd or anti-herd. In general, we find evidence for anti-herding, i.e. forecasters appear to scatter their forecasts deliberately away from the forecasts of others. Anti-herding tends to be more prevalent for the longer (next year) horizon. There is some evidence for a reduced level of anti-herding at times of increased forecast uncertainty and when the forecasts are being revised more substantially. © 2015 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

5. Concluding remarks This study investigates (anti-)herding behaviors of business cycle forecasters based on individual forecast data of participants in the Consensus Economics survey. The main finding is that forecasters show anti-herding behaviors in their predictions of GDP growth, at least in normal times and for industrialized countries. Thus, forecasters appear to make extreme forecasts in order to reap the ‘‘superstar bonus’’ if the forecast turns out to be the most accurate. However, the extent of anti-herding among the industrialized countries varies substantially. In contrast, for emerging economies, we find a tendency toward herding behaviors, as forecasters tend to move their forecasts towards the consensus.