دانلود رایگان مقاله بهره برداری از خرد مردم و فضای تصمیم جهت بازارهای پیش بینی

Abstract

The increased metabolism of business in the modern world has served to heighten both the frequency and the difficulty of organizational decision making. Practitioners and academics are constantly looking for decision-making mechanisms that can be used to address these challenges. One recently emerged mechanism is prediction markets: a group decision-making tool that uses a market mechanism to rapidly aggregate information held by large, diverse groups of participants. Prediction markets have a number of benefits and have been demonstrably successful in a number of contexts; however, itisimportant to recognize thatthey are suited to some types of decisions and contexts but not to others. This article examines the benefits of prediction markets and develops a framework that can be used to identify in which situations prediction markets can be profitably deployed within organizations. It also provides a roadmap for practitioners to use to guide their own organizational deployment of prediction markets.

5. Conclusions

By positioning prediction markets as a group decision-making tool, this article makes a number of contributions for both practitioners and academics. First, by framing prediction markets using the terminology and language of decision making, this article serves to increase awareness of prediction markets and their unique capabilities. It will allow prediction markets to be integrated fully into the general management literature. This increased exposure will offer managers and business leaders the chance to deploy these innovative group decisionmaking systems in a manner that will improve the competitive positioning of their organizations and allow them to more effectively harness the information and knowledge that exist inside every business organization. Second, this article presents a framework which examines the characteristics of decision spaces that are suitable for prediction market deployment. It provides a simple tool, grounded in the literature, that allows practitioners to determine whether or not prediction markets are suitable for the decision space in which they are engaged. Finally, this article contributes by integrating this framework into a larger implementation pathway that describes how practitioners can evaluate the decision-making contexts they are faced with and where to appropriately deploy organization prediction markets as a means of improving organizational decision making.