دانلود رایگان مقاله آیا عضویت EMU باعث "بیماری هلندی" در سازمان PIGS می شود ؟

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effect on the relatively poorer peripheral European nations of capital inflows resulting from entry into the EMU. A two-sector model of an open economy facilitates a study of the structural effects arising out of entry into the fraternity with the richer European core. It is observed that the vastly increased capital inflows to the so-called PIGS group of nations due to EMU entry did create conditions in the labor and goods markets, which are reminiscent of those observed when the Dutch disease, or deindustrialization phenomenon develops. The impact of EMU capital on the government sector was also studied. It is noted that for a non-deterioration of the government budget balance, a traded sector that is large relative to the nontraded sector will be required, as will be a large private nontraded sector relative to the government sector. The authenticity of these derived conditions for non-deterioration of the budget balance seems to be borne out by cross-country data on the PIGS nations.

6. Concluding comments

This paper has laid out a macroeconomic model that goes part of the way in capturing the developments in the peripheral nations of the EMU after accession to the union. The theoretical model predicts stagflation, deindustrialization, and deterioration in the government budget balance; the avalanche of capital inflows on EMU entry leads to price and labor market developments, which pave the way for such unsavory outcomes. The development of the government budget balance was shown to be linked to the very structure of the economies, specifically to two conditions: for a non-deterioration of the balance, a traded sector that is large relative to the nontraded sector will be required, as is a large private nontraded sector relative to the government sector. The authenticity of these derived conditions for non-deterioration of the government budget balance is borne out by available data, with Spain, which goes furthest down the path in the fulfillment of these relationships performing best, and Greece – nowhere near the fulfillment of the conditions – faring the worst.