دانلود رایگان مقاله تاثیر مشوق های مالی بر نفوذ بازار وسایل نقلیه الکتریکی

ABSTRACT

An important barrier to electric vehicle (EV) sales is their high purchase price compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. We conducted total cost of ownership (TCO) calculations to study how costs and sales of EVs relate to each other and to examine the role of fiscal incentives in reducing TCO and increasing EV sales. We composed EV-ICE vehicle pairs that allowed cross-segment and cross-country comparison in eight European countries. Actual car prices were used to calculate the incentives for each model in each country. We found a negative TCO-sales relationship that differs across car segments. Compared to their ICE vehicle pair, big EVs have lower TCO, higher sales, and seem to be less price responsive than small EVs. Three country groups can be distinguished according to the level of fiscal incentives and their impact on TCO and EV sales. In Norway, incentives led to the lowest TCO for the EVs. In the Netherlands, France, and UK the TCO of EVs is close to the TCO of the ICE pairs. In the other countries the TCO of EVs exceeds that of the ICE vehicles. We found that exemptions from flat taxes favour big EVs, while lump-sum subsidies favour small EVs.

5. Conclusions and policy implications

We analysed the relationship between fiscal incentives, TCO, net price, and sales of eight EV-ICE vehicle pairs in eight European countries (France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, and the United Kingdom) using 2014 data. The sales of the EV models considered represent about 2/3 of the total 2014 EU/EFTA EV market. A pairwise comparison approach was used, a choice that allowed us to exclude general car market differences between countries. We quantified net price, fuel, and electricity price differences across countries, and concluded that small EVs are relatively more expensive than big EVs, and PHEVs are more costly than BEVs compared to their ICE pairs. We found that the registration and circulation taxes exemption in Norway and the Netherlands favours big EVs. In contrast, de facto lump-sum subsidies in France and UK (20–27% of purchase price with a maximum cap) favour small EVs.

The TCO calculations contribute to our understanding of the interaction between fiscal incentives and sales. Incentives can play a crucial role in the market breakthrough of EVs, but larger market penetration can only be achieved if EVs become price competitive. Small, medium and big cars exhibit different relative TCO-sales relationships, both in terms of price responsiveness and spread of sales and TCO. It is important to consider these dependencies when fiscal policies are designed or modified because different incentive schemes favour different car segments and may affect different population sectors.

In Norway, various fiscal incentives made EVs cost competitive to ICE vehicles. This had a big impact on EV sales. In the other countries, the majority of EVs are still more expensive than their ICE pairs on a TCO basis. The relative TCO vs relative sales scatterplots revealed that in a cross-country comparison, big EVs seem to be less price responsive than small, and to exhibit a stronger cost-sales relationship. Such a relationship is an important aspect to consider when deciding the implementation of incentive schemes. A few models (Tesla Model S, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, and Nissan Leaf) had the highest relative sales, and they achieved noteworthy registration numbers even in countries where EV support policies were absent in 2014