دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی شبیه سازی مکانی کاربرد آسان برای برنامه ریزی شهری در شهرداری های کوچکتر - الزویر 2018

ABSTRACT

In order to produce precise outcomes, most spatial simulations require great volumes of data input, intensive data preparation or programming skills. Consequently, high quality spatial simulations are usually not applied in practice in municipalities of smaller size (< 25,000 citizens). This study aims to provide an easy-to-use tool for smaller urban administrations. A web application was developed which requires a minimum of manual user input for automated data preparation. Gamified elements aim to encourage the user to experience the underlying mechanisms of the system under alternating planning scenarios. These mechanisms are modelled as a combination of spatially implicit and explicit rules which can be derived from dependencies in the data itself. Spatial attractiveness was modelled as a function of accessibility of facilities, ground value, soil sealing, traffic intensity and noise pollution in a multi-variate spatial autoregressive regression analysis. A case study for the city center of Herdecke (Germany) revealed that the establishment of a new event location in the northern part of the study area was most appropriate for increasing spatial attractiveness. The presented easy-to-use tool is suitable for practical application in everyday administrative processes of smaller municipalities and thereby contributes to more applied sustainable urban planning.

6. Conclusions and outlook

Within a case study, it was shown how SimUSys could be used in order to identify the most suitable out of three sites for a new event location. The rule set of five spatially explicit and the implicit rules were automatically implemented and applied in this case study and allowed to experience the behavior of this system in a gamified environment.

Envisaged improvements to SimUSys involve the ability to simulate not only the creation of new but also closure of existing facilities and making alterations to the underlying streets and paths, which is the basis for the real time accessibility calculations. Furthermore, the user will be able to add polygons in future versions of SimUSys in order to model alternative zoning plans with respective probabilities for the establishment of new facilities which again might be derived from the data itself using SAR methodologies. This might pose a more realistic model for urban planning, especially for private facilities which are not placed to a specific location by the city administration but rather regulated by zoning plans.

Further improvements include temporarily dynamic population and migration models which should be able to account for different scenarios regarding the dramatic demographic changes in the region. One result of these changes is a severe increase in the absolute number of senior citizens. The proportion of people with reduced personal mobility is much higher than in other age groups. Consequently, mobility barriers will become more important and should be considered in the accessibility calculations in SimUSys (Mueller, Beyel, & Klein, 2017). Ultimately, it is worth noting that the presented simulation does not constitute an image of the real world, but rather a tool for experiencing system behavior and complexity and, by doing so, providing a starting point for informed discussions.

The presented easy-to-use decision support tool incorporates aspects of system dynamics, ABM and gamification approaches. It automatically integrates data from various sources with data on spatial attractiveness and is suitable for practical application in everyday administrative processes of smaller municipalities and thereby contributes to more targeted, informed and sustainable urban planning.