3. Concluding Thoughts and Recommendations
HCM is thought to be a leading cause of SCD in athletes, but the exact incidence of SCD in HCM remains unclear. Any single measure remains unlikely to provide enough information to holistically evaluate predictive model performance for rare SCD events. Though perfect prospective discrimination remains an unattainable goal, incremental improvements in how we identify children at risk may still advance us towards a more personalized medicine approach for children with HCM. The search for causes of SCD is pervasive but when applied to understanding biological behavior in response to changes in the daily life of children with HCM, it tends to ignore the complexity and produces a reductionist approach of universal explanations independent of the context in which the risk emerges [8]. Developing a working risk management approach to assist anxious parents and children is imperative and must be customized to the needs of the child and their parents. The incidence of SCD is probably low, and is estimated at less than 1% per year. The overall risk of SCD, considering the incidence of SCD among athletes and prevalence of HCM in the general population, in actively competing HCM athletes, is likely less than 0.1% per year [1]. It is hard to support firm recommendations given that the evidence for avoidance of competitive sport is based on a very limited number of observational studies/registries (with variable quality data sources) on causes of death and a change in prevalence of SCD after implementation of screening. There are conflicting data and methods, supportive data are deductive, open to interpretation and largely based on the comparison of SCD prevalence between widely different eras or between different geographic regions with different cultures, genetic profiles and clinical practices. Professionally and in the lay culture, HCM is thought, although rare, to be a leading cause of SCD in athletes with recommendations to avoid competitive exercise. Physicians are challenged when asked by concerned parents and children to justify seemingly overly restrictive clinical recommendations and to provide guidance about what exercise should be permitted in children with HCM [41]. On the one hand, despite the weak evidence and retrospective data, strenuous exercise may be deleterious to children with HCM, and is thought to increase the risk of life-threatening arrhythmias and syncope.