دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی آیا ساختار اقتصادی، ساختار مالی را تعیین می کند؟ - الزویر 2018

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the relationship between the structure of the real economy and a country's financial system. We consider whether the development of the real economic structure can predict the direction of evolution of a country’s financial structure. Using data for 108 countries, we find a significant relationship between real economic structure and financial structure. Next, we exploit shocks to the economies in India, Finland and Sweden, and South Korea and show that changes in the economic structure of a country influence the evolution of its financial system. This suggests that financial institutions and capital markets change in response to the structure of industries.

8. Conclusion

Our results provide new evidence concerning the causes and causality of the direction of evolution of the financial system structure. Using both OLS, dynamic panel techniques and event studies we document that the economic structure is closely linked to the shape of the financial system. We find that countries with asset-intensive sectors are more likely to have a bank-based system. Conversely, countries with sectors that are based on knowledge and intangible assets are likely to exhibit a market-based financial system. The results suggest that the structure of the real economy may influence the structure of the financial system. Additionally, even during systemic crises, such a relationship still holds. Moreover, we conduct event studies using a difference-indifference strategy in order to address the problems of potential endogeneity. We use different shocks that alter the economic structures in India, Finland and Sweden, and South Korea. In all the countries the shocks resulted in significant development of the service sector relative to the industry sector. The changes in economic structure were followed by changes in the structure of financial system, where the stock market gained on importance relative to the banking sector. Consequently, the results of the event studies suggest a causal relation between economic structure and financial structure. In our opinion, these results present a missing link in the explanation as to why country financial structures still differ. The results, however, confirm that other factors may influence the structure of the financial system. Consequently, a financial system may not always have an optimal structure, which may be a result of political arrangements or the interests of incumbent groups (Rajan and Zingales, 2003). Therefore, we assume that financial systems may not always be able to reach their optimal structure. However, as existing barriers are removed the structure of a financial system may develop and gain ground, but it would be independent of further changes in the real economic structure. Finally, when the financial system has reached its optimal structure with respect to the characteristics of the real economy, our theory implies that any increase in the significance of fixed-asset-intensive sectors would lead to an increase in the role of banks with respect to the stock market.