دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی توزیع مکالمه راه دور: تحلیل عوامل تعیین کننده در کامرون - الزویر 2018

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the diffusion of mobile telephone technology in Cameroon by identifying and analyzing the determinants of this diffusion. Studying the diffusion of mobile communications in African countries by integrating them into panels of developing countries is problematic. This approach is likely to mask the intrinsic differences as concerns the diffusion process. This survey shows, through the estimation of an S-shaped growth curve, that the Logistic model best describes the diffusion of mobile phone technology in Cameroon. Income, openness to competition and the use of SMS are key forces driving this diffusion. Forecasts indicate an increase of almost 70% in the demand by 2026 as far as mobile phone use in Cameroon is concerned. This implies not only an improvement in operators' and State's revenues, but also, the need to invest in infrastructures. Our recommendation therefore calls for a greater liberalization of the mobile phone market in Cameroon. In addition, given the complementary relationship between the core and the mobile networks, infrastructural investments are also needed in both sectors.

Conclusion

This study aims at analyzing the diffusion determinants of mobile telephony in Cameroon in order to propose a modeling of this diffusion. The diffusion of mobile telephony is analyzed by using an S-shaped growth curve. Findings show that the Logistic model adequately follows the diffusion curve of mobile telephony in Cameroon. It appears that the rate of growth of mobile-density is supposed to increase until the first quarter of 2017, and start declining thereafter. In addition, estimates show that in 2026, there will be 100 mobile telephones per 100 inhabitants in Cameroon. In other words, for a population estimated at 31 million in 2026, there will be 31 million mobile telephones in this country. Consequently, as from 2027, we predict the number of mobile telephones exceeding the size of the total population. In this perspective, the expansion of mobile telephony services is likely to lead to economic, logistic and strategic challenges for the stakeholders: an increase in operators' and State's revenues, but also, an increase in investment needs, taking into account the extension of the infrastructural network. Findings also reveal the Logistic model best describing the diffusion determinants of mobile telephony in Cameroon. The income variable represented here by the GDP per capita is a major determinant of mobile telephony diffusion in this country. Three other significant determinants are identified: openness to competition which accelerates the diffusion; the use of SMS; the complementarity between the mobile and the core networks, the first being only the complement of the second and not its substitute. That's why, recommendations are primarily in favor of investment incentives, as long as market permits, both in the mobile and core networks, given the complementary relationship identified between the two. Finally, it is worth noting the importance of mobile money as a potential determining factor of the mobile telephony diffusion in Cameroon.