دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی تفاوت های گونه شناسی مزارع در سرمایه گذاری هنگفت از سال 1996 تا سال 2013 - امرالد 2017

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of changes in farm economic conditions and macroeconomic trends on US farm capital expenditures between 1996 and 2013. Design/methodology/approach – A synthetic panel is constructed from Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) data. A dynamic system GMM regression model is estimated for farms as a whole and separately within farm typology categories. The use of farm typologies allows for comparison of the relative magnitudes of these estimates across farms by farm sales level and the operator’s primary occupation. Findings – Changes in gross farm income levels, tax depreciation rates, and interest rates have a significant impact on crop farm investment, while changes in output prices, net cash farm income levels, tax depreciation rates, and farm specialization levels have significant impacts on livestock farm capital investment. The relative significance and magnitudes of these impacts differ within farm typologies. Significant differences include a greater responsiveness to change in tax policy variables for residential crop farms, greater responsiveness to changes in output prices and debt to asset ratios for intermediate livestock farms, and larger changes in commercial crop and livestock farm investment given equivalent changes in farm sales or the returns to investment. Research limitations/implications – These findings are of interest to agricultural economists when constructing farm investment models and employing pseudo panel methods, to those in the agricultural equipment and manufacturing sector when constructing models to manage inventories and plan for production needs across regions and over time, to those involved in drafting tax policy and evaluating the potential impacts of tax changes on agricultural investment, and for those in the agricultural lending sector when designing and executing agricultural capital lending programs. Originality/value – This study uniquely identifies differences in the level of investment and the magnitude of investment responsiveness to changes in farm economic conditions and macroeconomic trends given differences in income levels and primary operator occupation. In addition, this study is one of the few which utilizes ARMS data to study farm capital investment. Utilizing ARMS data provides a rich panel data set, covering producers across many different crop production types and regions. Finally, employing pseudo panel construction methods contributes to efforts to effectively employ cross-sectional data and dynamic models to study farm behavior across time

Summary and conclusion

This study estimates a dynamic model of US farm capital investment using a synthetic panel constructed from the ARMS data set. This synthetic data set incorporates detailed farm level observations for producers in 48 US states over the 1996-2013 time period. Differences in investment rate responses given changes in agricultural microeconomic factors and economy wide macroeconomic factors are explored by investment type and across farm typologies. Changes in gross cash farm income, current and lagged depreciation tax rates, and interest rates result in statistically significant changes in crop farm investment rates. Livestock farm investment rates, on average, are impacted by changes in output prices, gross cash farm income levels, tax depreciation rates, and farm specialization levels. Within the different typologies one finds larger investment rate responses given equal changes in tax depreciation rates, marginal tax rates, interest rates and off-farm income for resident crop farms. Changes in output prices and debt to asset ratios generate larger relative changes in intermediate livestock farm investment rates. Larger crop and livestock commercial farm investment rates changes are correlated with equivalent changes in gross cash farm income and the returns to investment levels. Increases in past investment rates are found to reduce investment rates in the current period for all typologies, with the exception of commercial crop farms.