دانلود رایگان مقاله مدل سازی فرایند تصمیم گیری برای حرکت مستقیم با استفاده از استنباط بیزی معکوس

ABSTRACT

Humans sometimes make unreasonable decisions when viewed in objective terms. Even in the real world, we may lose sense of direction by turning around the corner several times or mistaking the estimationoftravel distance.We experimented invirtual spacehow we lose sense of directionunder what circumstances. In the experiment, subjects viewed a three-dimensional space displayed on a computer display in the first person’s perspective and were instructed to go straight from the start to the goal position. Results showed that unreasonable selections that strayed from the centerline connecting the start and goal positions were frequently made. The change in the direction is more influential than the change in the distance, and the angle of turning also affects. Furthermore, the subject’s decision – making process was modeled using Bayesian inference and inverse Bayesian inference. Comparing the two models, when the decision-making pattern suddenly changed, the model by inverse Bayesian inference could follow up faster than the Bayesian inference.

6. Conclusion

In the experiments of moving in a virtual three-dimensional space, many unreasonable judgments were observed. Depending on the three-dimensional model, the goal position, judgment time,and unreasonable judgment ratio changed. However, differences due to changes in the degree of uncertainty were not observed. The change in the direction is more influential than the change in the distance, and the angle of turning also affects. As a result of applying the time series data of the judgment of the subjects to the Bayesian and BIB inference, both results are roughly consistent with the actual data.As the degree of uncertainty increases,the inference error also increases. The result of BIB inference tends to match the actual data rather than that of the Bayesian inference. It is thought that the decision-making process in which the strategy suddenly changes can be modeled by BIB inference. In addition, when the number of data is large, the effectiveness of BIB inference may become remarkable. In the future, we are planning experiments to verify whether we can walk straight in real city blocks.