دانلود رایگان مقاله بررسی بازار ترافیک هوایی با مدل سازی گرانش

abstract

With two of the busiest air traffic corridors globally, Sydney-Melbourne (SYD-MEL) and Sydney-Brisbane (SYD-BNE), very liberal open skies agreements, and the world's most isolated large city in Perth, air freight in Australia should be destined for substantial growth, but has in contrast to other regions such as the US not yet materialised. This paper identifies challenges surrounding domestic air freight markets in Australia and compares the provision of road vs air freight services utilising gravity modelling methods. Our findings suggest the impedance of domestic air freight services in Australia is greater for regional areas between the primary cities (such as Canberra, between Sydney and Melbourne) than remoter areas (such as Cairns in Northern Australia). Our models show further that in addition to distance, air freight capacity on any of our analysed routes is despite being demand-pulled in terms of GDP dependency significantly attuned to factors at both the origin (in particular domestic trade capability, i.e. manufacturing and logistics) and destination.

6. Conclusions and further research

This paper aimed at evaluating some of the issues regarding the domestic air freight markets in Australia by examining the time and cost of service provided by air and road transport modes by utilising gravity modelling methods. The models employed have identified regional economic factors (unemployment, employment within logistics and transport sectors, retail service levels) that may indicate the strength (or weakness) of attraction for any domestic air freight route. As expected distance factors were significant to the analysis (although cost was not as significant), and these factors influence the substitution effect between road and air services. We have shown that some corridors, such as all routes to Perth (as a result of its distance to any other Australian major urban centre), should pose competitive advantages for air freight over any other mode of transport. Transnational passenger routes from Perth utilise wide-bodied aircraft and provide coopetition to the dedicated freighter network, whilst the long distances for intercity freight movements (to Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane) provide significant time savings. On short-haul routes, such as Sydney to Canberra, air freight is simply not competitive to road at all. The fact that routes which would benefit from air freight are not growing (by tonnage, despite subsequent growth in capacity) may be related to a combination of demand factors such as the type of commodity that is transported between those cities, as well as anti-competitive pricing strategies, thus creating market inefficiencies.