دانلود رایگان مقاله تخصیص دینامیک دارایی و مصرف در نظام نابرابری تورم

Abstract

Differences in spending patterns and in price increases across goods and services lead to the unequal inflation experiences of households (called inflation inequality). These differences then cause disagreements in inflation expectations and eventually have a significant effect on households’ asset allocation and consumption decisions. The asset allocation model in this paper explains how inflation experiences affect household investment and consumption through corresponding inflation expectations, which are characterized by long-term expected inflation, the impact coefficient of the expected inflation and the correlation between expected inflation and the risky return. Using China's economic data, the empirical results show that significant differences in inflation expectation arise from income gap, regional inequality, different inflation measures and economic sector spending differences. Using the estimated coefficients, the calibration results have policy implications that households need more financing channels to resist inflation, especially in rural areas and in the raw material sector.

6. Conclusions

Inflation inequality has a significant effect on households’ asset allocation strategies and consumption choices. This paper elicits disagreements in inflation expectations based on various dispersions of inflation experiences. An asset allocation model is employed to determine how diverse inflation expectations affect the decisions of households. This provides some evidence of the asset allocation strategies and consumption choices of households in China. In this paper, we use CHFS survey data to find that the average ratio of assets allocated to the risky sector matches the average asset allocation situation of China's households. Households do not participate significantly in the derivatives market. Based on the analysis of the CHFS data, under the dispersions of inflation experiences, the diverse asset allocation strategies and consumption choices of households accounted for the high standard deviations of the ratios of risky allocation and consumption. More specifically, we discover that the inflation experiences from the revenue gap between the low-income group and the high-income group forced the low-income groups to take a stronger position in the risky sector and demand more financing. The inflation experiences from the income gap between the urban and rural households encourage the rural households to be more involved in the derivatives market to hedge against inflation risk. Second, we find that if households measured inflation quarter-on-quarter, then they would allocate fewer assets to the risky sector but consume more. Third, we find that households with inflation experience in the consumption sector allocates more to the risky assets and consumes more. Meanwhile, households with inflation experience in the raw materials sector have a far higher hedge ratio compared to other sectors. Hence, they are more involved in the derivatives market when they are hedging against the risk of inflation. Finally, households in central China allocate more assets to the risky sector, rely more on the future markets to hedge inflation risk, and consume more.