دانلود رایگان مقاله سازمان های آتش در آمازون

Abstract

Reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is now a vital component in climate change mitigation strategies. Global initiatives such as REDD+ are receiving growing investments, and in-country policy makers are under pressure to protect intact forests. In 2008, Brazil met these pressures by making deforestation reduction a central piece of its climate change policy. Although previous research found that this policy led to reduced deforestation, decreases in fire–another significant factor in carbon emissions–were not observed. Here we revisit Amazonia, the target location of Brazil’s anti-deforestation policies, to determine how precipitation may be affecting forest fires in the area while controlling for other potential biophysical, economic, and institutional correlates. Using data on precipitation and deforestation alongside MODIS active fire and burned area data, this article examines the general spatial-temporal trends of fire in the region between 2001 and 2013. We then implements statistical models to measure the relative impact of precipitation and anti-deforestation policies on both fire events and burned area over the time period. The analysis shows that while deforestation decreased under policy treatment, forest fires were less responsive to policies. Furthermore, the analysis provides strong evidence for the existence of a precipitation effect on both fire events and burned area. Results indicate that a one standard deviation decrease in precipitation from its normal could increase fire events by 11–15% and burned area by 18–27%. The article concludes by addressing the challenges in controlling fire in Amazonia under drier climatic conditions in the presence of abundant fuel and ignition sources.

5. Conclusion

While this analysis provides strong evidence for the effect of blacklisting on reducing fire events, the effect of blacklisting on burned area is not consistently negative. Considering that burned area is the variable more likely to identify forest fires as opposed to agricultural fires, these results indicate that PPCDAm-II, which has been shown to reduce deforestation (i.e. clear cutting of the forest (Arima et al., 2014)), may not be preventing forest degradation caused by wildfires in dry years. The implications of these results could not be more important. Without addressing degradation, policies focused solely on deforestation are only partially effective. The degradation that occurs when the forest is disturbed by anthropogenic fire and logging can reduce aboveground carbon by 40% on average and constitutes an important source of emissions (Berenguer et al., 2014). Such degradation also furthers the risks of future fragmentation, burning, and grass invasion (see Fig. 1).