دانلود رایگان مقاله ایجاد تجارت، انحراف تجارت و عدم تعادل در EMU

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to provide a unified explanation for the mixed evidence on the euro effect on trade and the development of imbalances in the European Monetary Union (EMU). It is argued that the two phenomena are the result of trade creation and trade diversion effects generated by the euro introduction and by globalisation-induced changes in trade patterns. Trade creation and trade diversion effects are estimated as structural changes in the relation between trade flows and financial opening, growth, prices, and measures of globalization. While most of these effects point to the increase in imbalances, financial opening is found to positively affect intra-EMU trade. On the other hand, GDP growth and global changes in production technology reduced intra-EMU trade. The results suggest that policies aimed at rebalancing the EMU should be strengthened and supported by measures aimed at improving the competitiveness of the single market as a whole.

6. Conclusions and policy recommendations

The evolution of trade flow among the original members of the European Monetary Union has been characterized by the initial rise and subsequent fall of trade and current account balances on the one hand, and a continuous reduction in the share of intra-EMU trade with respect to total trade on the other. While the first factor has been widely investigated because of the connection to the area's prospects for recovery, the reduction of intra-EMU trade shares has received little attention. In this paper, we have argued that the reduction of intra-EMU shares and the development of imbalances are – at least partially – the result of core–periphery differences in trade creation and trade diversion effects associated with the introduction of the single currency and with the ongoing globalization process. Differing from the literature on the euro effect on trade, these effects have been estimated by testing the significance of structural changes for the countries that joined the monetary union on the variables representing the main causes of imbalances – financial integration, divergences in price/nonprice competitiveness, and global technological changes. The divergence between core and peripheral countries of the EMU has been taken into account by allowing coefficients to vary between the two groups.