دانلود رایگان مقاله توسعه بازار سهام و رشد اقتصادی

ABSTRACT

The paper examines the long run and causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth for seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, the study finds that the stock market development is cointegrated with economic growth in Egypt and South Africa. Moreover, this test suggests that stock market development has a significant positive long run impact on economic growth. Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM) further shows that stock market development Granger causes economic growth in Egypt and South Africa. However, Granger causality in the context of VAR shows evidence of bidirectional relationship between stock market development and economic growth for Cote D’Ivoire, Kenya, Morocco and Zimbabwe. In Nigeria, there is a weak evidence of growth-led finance using market size as indicator of stock market development. Based on these results, the paper argues that stock markets could help promote growth in Africa. However, to achieve this goal, African stock markets need to be further developed through appropriate regulatory and macroeconomic policies.

5. Concluding remarks

The paper investigates the long run and causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth for seven African countries using the ARDL bounds test and Granger causality test within the context of VECM framework. Long run cointegrating relationship between the series could be detected only for two countries Egypt and South Africa, while causality for the seven countries. Granger causality test within the VECM framework shows unidirectional relations running from stock market development to economic growth. However, Granger causality within VAR framework shows short run bidirectional causality between stock market development and economic growth. In the case of Nigeria, a weak evidence of unidirectional causality running from economic growth to stock market development was found. What lessons can be drawn from these results? One, in countries where bidirectional Granger causality or feedback between stock market development and economic growth was found, policies designed to enhance efficiency of the stock markets and economic growth will be mutually beneficial. Such policies could entail consolidation and improvement on current growth and investment patterns in these economies to infuse higher demand for capital market activities which in turn will engender economic growth.