دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی یک چارچوب شبیه سازی برای مدیریت بحران: طراحی و استفاده - الزویر 2018

abstract

A perennial simulation framework is proposed within the domain of crisis management simulation. Motivated by a need for establishing information superiority through decisionsupport analysis, the framework is designed to use symbiotic simulation and is also suitable for the hindsight and foresight studies that drive crisis-related preparedness exercises. The framework provides a novel feature of incorporating Human in the Loop simulations using virtual reality as a part of the symbiotic simulation. We coin the term perennial simulation to refer to our framework being enduring (the simulation working symbiotically with the real system), and recurring (performing “what-if?” simulations and continually providing feedback to the real system). Three case studies examine the application of the framework to crisis-related scenarios. The framework is shown to be useful and capable of dealing with crisis situations and adding value to existing expert advice, forming a symbiotic feedback loop that aids crisis management.

5. Conclusions and future work

We presented a perennial simulation framework that targets crisis management simulation. This framework incorporated concepts of dynamic data-driven systems, symbiotic simulation as well as human-in-the-loop techniques. We detailed the framework and its components, and described three experiments that used the framework and served as case studies.

The first case study described a building evacuation scenario, and demonstrated that symbiotic simulation can improve the egress times of building occupants if real time guidance or information is provided. The second case study dealt with incident response on crowded roadways, and demonstrated the real time decision making capability of perennial simulation.

The third case study showed a novel approach of coupling two simulators, where one simulator was used for providing guidance, while the other acted as a surrogate model for the real world. Taken together the case studies provide a strong motivation for setting up perennial simulations: they are long-lasting, provide benefits during non-crisis situations, and are pivotal in establishing information superiority during a crisis an event in which time is a scarce resource, and any informed decision or control is welcome.

As future work, we aim to establish an upper bound on the runtime of “What-If?” simulations and validate case study 3 on Singapore’s road network. We aim to speed up the performance of “What-If?” simulations by using parallel computing techniques like multi-core architectures or GPUs.