دانلود رایگان مقاله مدل مبتنی بر سناریو برای ارزیابی اثربخشی مدیریت اضطراری زلزله

ABSTRACT

Earthquakes usually produce a complex disaster chain including fires, landslides, floods, plague, and social panic, which eventually leads to disastrous consequences. In such situations, earthquake emergency management is vital for reducing the risks and the disastrous consequences. Scenario-based methods have often been used by decision makers in different fields as an instrument to manage the uncertainty of the effects of earthquakes. This paper adopts a scenario-based model to evaluate the effectiveness of earthquake emergency management. The model extracts the key elements of earthquake emergency management, simulates possible earthquake disaster scenarios, and obtains an evaluation according to the real situation. It is verified by comparing it with the real situation of the Wenchuan earthquake in China through scenario deduction and simulation. It shows that the scenario-based model can be used to reproduce the development process of an earthquake, identify the key factors which can effectively reduce earthquake losses and then help policy makers to have a better understanding of the earthquake disaster from which to put forward practical measures for emergency management.

6. Conclusions

In this paper, Cross-Impact Analysis and Interpretive Structural Modeling (CIA-SIM) have been combined with the Delphi method to build a scenario-based model for earthquake emergency management effectiveness evaluation. The CIA-SIM process helps to deal with conflict resolution, obtain consensus and increase the quantity of information. Through the whole process of scenario awareness, construction and deduction, the effectiveness of earthquake emergency management can be evaluated. Based on the results, useful suggestions can be provided for emergency management work.

A series of hypothetical earthquake emergency scenarios have been developed based on the real cases in which the potential implications of critical events for other events, especially for the outcome events, are analyzed. The relationship between events can be explicitly expressed in digraph. The promotion impacts of secondary disasters are clearly revealed. Aftershocks, building collapse, landslides and floods are usually the causes of other secondary disasters. The guidance given by the emergency preparations to the rescue work is also clarified. And all emergency rescue works can constitute a micro set. It means they have inter positive impacts on each other. They can also be separated to clarify respective impacts on secondary disasters and losses. The critical factors affecting earthquake losses can be extracted. Population density has a direct impact on casualties. In emergency preparations, the disaster prevention project and emergency material reserves are the most important for avoiding heavy casualties. The seismic performance of buildings and infrastructure has a significant negative impact. Most secondary disasters have a significant negative impact on casualties. Efficient rescue task can effectively reduce casualties. As for economic losses, poor seismic performance of buildings is a key cause of massive economic losses. Compared with other secondary disasters, large-scale fires will cause more obvious economic losses. And there is no emergency measures that can effectively restore economic losses. The huge economic losses from an earthquake are hard to recover. A perfect emergency plan plays a vital role in stabilizing public sentiment. Aseismic and reduction consciousness can help the public to deal calmly with the disaster. However, the destruction of the lifeline system and the occurrence of disaster chain will aggravate public panic. Efficient rescue task and the government's positive guidance on public opinion can greatly ease panic. The results show that the emergency preparation work is necessary to avoid the serious losses and adverse social impact caused by an earthquake. In the emergency rescue phase, all the rescue measures need to cooperate with each other in order to achieve the desired results. As can be seen from the results of the analysis, the probabilities of the earthquake losses decrease substantially when several rescue measures are carried out effectively.