ترجمه مقاله ارزیابی ریسک پروژه های مشارکتی عمومی – خصوصی برای زیر ساخت های شارژ وسایل نقلیه الکتریکی - نشریه الزویر

With increasing worldwide attention on clean energy and sustainability of environment development, electric vehicle (EV) projects have been growing in number and scale all over the world. However, increasing demand-supply imbalance in charging infrastructure becomes the major obstacle of Chinese EV development. Governments are applying Public-Private Partnership (PPP) mode in this field to effectively make use of solid capital and advanced technological capability of private sector to improve charging performance and service. To ensure project success, risk evaluation, which has remained nebulous, has become a crucial step. This paper aims to explore risk factors through questionnaire survey and calculate the overall risk levels of EV charging infrastructure PPP projects with an integrated approach with Fuzzy Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Fuzzy TOPSIS). Results of risk factors identification consisted of project/technical, political/legal, economic and social/environmental risk categories and four risk factors were selected for specific concern of charging infrastructure in China: inadequate PPP project experience, high battery cost, long charging period and power price rise. Overall risk levels of three alternative projects were evaluated and ranked with proposed approach whose feasibility and effectiveness were verified through a comparative analysis and a sensitivity analysis. Moreover, awareness of existing risks, suggestions were provided for private sectors of EV charging infrastructure PPP project. The detailed implications and limitations were presented in the suggestions and the conclusions.

1 Introduction

As global sustainable development, energy saving and emission reduction have become necessary and urgent issues. Electric vehicles (EVs), which play a key role in strategic development plans as a promising technology to promote environmental quality, livability, and sustainability without significantly reducing convenience or mobility (Stark Juliane et al., 2018; White and Sintov, 2017), has been given more attention for its outstanding performance in carbon emission reduction (Zhang and Han, 2017) and environment protection. Since transport sector has been one of the top contributors in greenhouse gas emissions (He and Zhan, 2018; S. Wang et al., 2017), significant efforts and series of measurements have been taken to satisfy China’s sustainable development requirements. As a result, China has become the world's largest electric vehicle market and continues to maintain a high-speed growth (Lin and Wu, 2018) and its sales totaled 777,000 in 2017. Despite the EV development scale, it is noteworthy that demand-supply imbalance in electric vehicle charging infrastructure (EVCI) has become the major obstacle of EV development in China. To satisfy increasingly urgent charging demand, public-private partnership (PPP) mode has been introduced and supported to attract private sectors and make use of their advantages in financing, design, construction and operation for providing high quality, efficient and diverse charging services and creating social benefit (Ou, 2016). 7

Conclusions

EV development can play a significant role in achieving clean environmental benefits and contribute to sustainability of the society. Introducing PPP mode into EV charging infrastructure construction to solve demand-supply imbalance is highly encouraged by the government as an effective mean to attract private capital and improve charging performances and services. Risk analysis of a PPP project is necessary for the private sector to ensure project success and it’s important to understand what risk factors might influence the project and how to calculate the overall risk level with scientific approach. To solve this problem, this paper constructed a risk identification and evaluation framework of EVCI PPP project with an integrated fuzzy TOPSIS approach. As the results, we selected 17 critical risk factors as evaluation criterion through literature review and questionnaire survey, determined criterion weights with normalized mean method and evaluated and ranked alternatives with proposed approach. A comparative analysis and a sensitivity analysis were constructed to verify feasibility and effectiveness of the model. Risk evaluation and analysis of PPP project are most critical issues and attract attentions from researchers all over the world. As part of main infrastructure construction, risk analysis of charging infrastructure plays a significant role though few literature has carefully identify its risk factors and conduct comprehensive evaluation in this field for the private sector. This paper intents to contribute to this section.