دانلود رایگان مقاله تعیین کمیت نقاط کور و سیگنال ضعیف در قضاوت اجرایی ادغام سازمان یافته قضاوت متخصص

abstract

The integration of expert judgment is a fundamental pillar of most scenario planning processes. In particular, the systematic scanning of external expert opinions has been shown to be effective for the early detection of emerging threats and opportunities in an organization’s environment. However, organizations tend to focus on internal advice more than on advice from external experts. This can be critical for organizations if it leads to an inertia in internal judgment, resulting in blind spots or a failure to see weak signals in the firm’s periphery. In this article, we introduce a structured framework for the collection and structuring of internal and external expert judgment. This so-called 360◦ Stakeholder Feedback tool provides a structured and quantitative approach for the detection and discussion of blind spots and weak signals in scenario planning processes. Thus, it can contribute to a better and more holistic judgment in the strategic process. We demonstrate the methodology based on a case from the German construction industry, in which we aggregate and analyze expert judgments from different stakeholder groups regarding the future of the industry. © 2015 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

6. Discussion

The identification of weak signals and blind spots is a major challenge in strategic planning processes in general and scenario planning projects in particular. In spite of recent methodological research in the domain that has suggested various different ways of eliciting, quantifying and structuring the knowledge of experts (Aspinall, 2010; Morgan, 2014; Rowe & Wright, 2011; Schoemaker et al., 2013), the analysis of the weak signals and blind spots that show up as a result of such expert knowledge elicitation is an issue that has not been discussed in most of the literature on scenario planning to date.