دانلود رایگان مقاله تفاوت بهره وری و مهاجرت بین دولت در ایالات متحده

Abstract

In this paper, we study the quantitative role of productivity differences in explaining migration in presence of multiple destination choices. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with multi-region, multi-sector set-up where labor is a mobile input, which adjusts to regional and sectoral productivity shocks, resulting in migration across regions. The proposed model generates a migration network where the flow of migrants between any two regions follows a gravity equation. We calibrate the model to the U.S. data and we find that variation in industrial and regional total factor productivity shocks explains about 63% of the interstate migration in the U.S. Finally, we perform comparative statics to estimate the effects of long-run structural changes on migration. We find that capital intensity of the production process and the demand for services over manufactured goods negatively impact aggregate level of migration whereas asymmetries in trade patterns do not appear to have substantial effects.

5. Summary and conclusion

Dependence of migration decisions on multiple destinations has become an important topic in the migration literature (Bertoli and Moraga, 2013). We have presented a model of migration based on a richly specified structure originally developed in the trade theoretic literature following Eaton and Kortum (2002). We employ a technique originally developed by Caliendo et al. (2014) to pin down the migratory responses in a static multi-region, multi-sector economy. We convert it into a dynamic general equilibrium model. In steady state, the system is subjected to successive productivity shocks under realistic parameterization and from that we generate a directed and weighted network of migration. We use standard parameter values for U.S. economy to simulate the model, which performs well in explaining the network of labor flow across states of the U.S. and it matches the gross flow of labor with the real data reasonably well. Apart from providing a model of the multilateral gravity equations, we have also experimented with possible changes in the capital intensity, preferences as well as the trade patterns. The results show that the aggregate level of migration can be substantially affected due to such changes. In particular, increase in capital intensity significantly reduces the aggregate level of migration.