دانلود رایگان مقاله اوپک و امنیت جهانی نفت

ABSTRACT

On the margin, the effectiveness of policy to enhance the stability of world oil market oil conditions greatly depends on which countries supply what economists would call the “marginal barrels.” That is, the barrels whose production responds to changes in demand. If the countries dominating the production of the marginal barrels are relatively unstable, policies to reduce world oil consumption or boost oil production from stable suppliers will provide the additional benefit of reducing the contribution of unstable producers to the world oil market. If the countries dominating the marginal barrel are relatively stable, however, policies to reduce world oil consumption or boost oil production from stable suppliers will be less effective in promoting oil market stability. Typically, we think of the highest cost producers as supplying the marginal barrel of oil, but our assessment finds it quite likely that OPEC dominates production of the marginal barrel of world oil. Moreover, OPEC members have been among the more unstable producers on a historical basis. Hence, reducing world oil consumption and promoting oil production in stable non-OPEC countries will enhance world oil security. Policies to promote stability in OPEC countries also would enhance world oil security.

5. Conclusions and policy implications

In this paper, we develop a framework for evaluating the critical factors influencing OPEC's role in the world oil market and its geopolitical record of unstable production. Our approach is to combine to seemingly disparate strands of inquiry as Adelman (2004) suggested. With this approach, we are able to assess how policies to change global oil demand and non-OPEC supply will affect world oil supply security in a geopolitical sense. We find OPEC's cost structure and likely market behavior has made it the dominant producer of the marginal barrel of oil, which means OPEC will account for a large share of the adjustment in world oil production to changes in demand. OPEC's exercise of market power reduces its market share while increasing its contribution to the marginal barrel. Therefore, OPEC's relatively low cost structure and exercise of market power likely has obscured its role as the dominant supplier of the marginal barrel. We also find OPEC members have been among the more unstable producers, and they can be expected to remain so. Consequently, OPEC's low costs and market dominance contribute to the insecurity of world oil supply.