دانلود رایگان مقاله یک رویکرد جدید برای پیش بینی فناوری امیدوار کننده از طریق تجزیه و تحلیل ثبت اختراع

abstract

Forecasting promising technology is a relevant opportunity for management of companies and countries. Furthermore, researchers in research and development (R&D) have recently considered that patents include detailed information on developed technologies. For these reasons, we suggest a novel approach to forecasting PT using patent analysis. The overall process of the proposed methodology consists of three steps. First, to form technology clusters, we clustered patent documents on the basis of the cooperative patent classification (CPC), which represents a more detailed technology classification system than the international patent classification (IPC). Second, regarding the process of defining technology clusters, we examined the combination of CPCs of each formed clusters. Finally, patent indicators such as forward citations, triadic patent families, and independent claims are analyzed to assess whether the technology clusters are promising. We collected patent data on the wellness care industry from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) to verify the proposed methodology.

5. Conclusion

In this paper, we forecasted the promising technology of the wellness care field using patent information from the USPTO. First, to form technology clusters with similar technologies, we considered CPCs because they include much more detailed information on technologies than do IPCs. Next, to understand the promise of each formed technology cluster, we use the patent information to calculate patent indicators, including patent family, forward citations, and independent claims. The reason is that such indicators are important pieces of information used mainly to assess the value and level of technology.