دانلود رایگان مقاله تعامل خروج پول و اقتصاد کلان عربستان سعودی

Abstract

The effect of workers' remittance outflows on macroeconomic variables of host countries is a controversial issue. The purpose of this paper is to study lead/lag interactions between workers' remittance outflows and macroeconomic leading variables in Saudi Arabia for 1980–2013 within a time–frequency framework. To this end, we perform three wavelet variants, namely, the wavelet power spectrum, the cross-spectrum wavelet, and the coherence wavelet. We show that remittance outflows are strongly associated with the main Saudi aggregates and that their relationships change across time scale and frequency bands. In the short- and mid-term, real output growth and government expenditures guide remittance outflows. More specifically, government expenditures positively affect remittance shares to real outputs. In addition, the wavelet analysis reveals a positive causality link from the active population to remittances over low-frequency bands. These outcomes have several prominent implications and point to practical recommendations in terms of monetary policy coordination and financial stability.

5. Summary and policy implications

Recent trends indicate that workers' remittance outflows are affected by changes in the macroeconomic conditions in remittent countries that include, among other factors, changes in real growth rates, real exchange rates, inflation, government expenditures, and unemployment rates. While several empirical studies have been conducted on this subject, more emphasis has been placed on developed economies, leaving other emerging and frontier economies disregarded. Existing studies present unconvincing and occasionally contradictory results regarding interactive linkages between workers' remittance outflows and other macroeconomic aggregates. Such results may be attributed to the use of several standard linear and nonlinear empirical frameworks that are restricted to time as one dimension and that are prone to the time series non-stationarity problem and to other empirically stylized facts. Based on the aforementioned considerations, we analyzed the dynamic relationship between workers' remittance outflows and other macroeconomic variables across time–frequency dimensions. More specifically, we assessed lead–lag interactive linkages between workers' remittance outflows and global macroeconomic aggregates for Saudi Arabia for 1980–2013. Unlike prior studies dedicated to this issue, we use three variants of the wavelet methodology (the wavelet power spectrum, the cross-wavelet power spectrum, the coherence wavelet) to identify their co-evolution in the time and frequency space.