دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی تأثیرات سرمایه گذاری عمومی بر سرمایه گذاری خصوصی و رشد اقتصادی - امرالد 2018

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess both short and long-term influences of public investment on economic growth and test the hypothesis that whether public investment promotes or demotes private investment in Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use the approach of autoregressive distributed lag model and Vietnam’s macro data in the period of 1990-2016, to evaluate the short and long-term effects of public investment on economic growth and private investment. The model evaluating the impact of public investment on economic growth and private investment based on the neoclassical theories. The public investment which strongly affects economic growth is also reflected by aggregate supply and demand. Public investment directly impacts aggregate demand as a government expenditure and aggregate supply as a production function (capital factor). Findings – The results from this research indicate that public investment in Vietnam in the past period does affect economic growth in the pattern of an inverted-U shape as of Barro (1990), with positive effects mostly occurring from the second year and negative effects of constraining long-term growth. Meanwhile, investment from the private sector, state-owned enterprises, and FDI has positive effects on short-term economic growth and state-owned capital stock has positive impacts on economic growth in both the short and long run. The estimated influence of public investment on private investment also shows a similar inverted-U shape in which public investment have crowding-in private investment short-term but crowding-out in the long run. Practical implications – The empirical findings in this study can be used for conducting a more efficient policy in restructuring the state sector investment in Vietnam. Originality/value – The main contributions in this study are: to evaluate the impacts of public investment on economic growth and private investment, the authors extracted public investment in infrastructure from aggregate investment of state sector (as previous studies used); the authors also uses state-owned capital stock variable including cumulative public investment and state-owned enterprises investment suggesting that this could control for the different orders of integration between the stock and flow variable and improve the experimental characteristics of the equation to a higher degree.

5. Conclusion and recommendation

This research studies the effects of public investment on Vietnam’s economic growth and private investment in both short and long terms during the period of 1990-2016 by a research approach ARDL model. The findings indicate that public investment in Vietnam in the past period does affect economic growth in an inverted-U shape effect as of Barro (1990), with positive effects mostly occurring from the second year and negative effects in the long run. Similarly, public investment also has a similar influence pattern on private investment, boosting in the short term but crowding-out in the long term. This implies that when the economy needs investment environment to attract private investment, public investment plays an important role; however, in the long term, the role of public investment is reduced due to the coefficient of negative impact. Therefore, it is significantly necessary to have a reasonable threshold of the public investment to achieve the best balance. From the findings of public investment’s influences on economic growth and private investment in Vietnam, this paper attempts to make some recommendations to improve Vietnam’s current public investment in the context of medium-term policy of 2016-2020 which is being implemented.