دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی ارزش منصفانه حسابداری و دقت پیش بینی تحلیل گر - الزویر 2017

Abstract

This study examines the effect of fair value accounting on the behavior of analysts using a large, generalizable sample of U.S. firms. By employing a measure of firms' fair value intensity, we provide evidence showing that firms with higher fair value intensity have more accurate analyst earnings forecasts, a significant main effect elusive to Magnan, Menini, and Parbonetti (2015). Furthermore, by using disclosures required by Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 157, we find significant positive associations between analyst forecast accuracy and Level 1 and Level 2 fair value measurements, but we do not find such association for Level 3 measurements. We document that these main effects are predominantly concentrated in non-financial industry firms in contrast to financial industry firms. This suggests that qualitative features of fair value measurements, including their business purpose and on-average accounting treatment (e.g., trading assets, available for sale, etc.), could also have an impact on analyst forecasting accuracy beyond mere measurement issues. Our results contribute to the debate over fair value accounting by showing the impact of fair value accounting upon an important participant in the capital markets.

4. Conclusion

V. Conclusion This study asks an interesting and novel question regarding the impact of fair value measurements on the forecasts of financial analysts and builds upon the work of Magnan et al. (2015). The study of what impacts forecasting outcomes is an important area of research as forecasts of earnings and other signals of future cash flow are very important to the capital markets. This specific question also yields significant tension as fair value accounting could be hypothesized to have a positive relationship with forecasting outcomes, no relationship with forecasting outcomes, or even a negative relationship with forecasting outcomes. Several competing reasons could impact any relationship between fair value asset holdings and the accuracy of analyst forecasts.

Our results documented herein appear to support several of the explanations for a relationship between fair value asset holdings and analyst forecast accuracy. Overall, we find a positive relationship between fair value asset holdings and forecast accuracy. However, this relationship does not hold for financial industry firms, suggesting that qualitative differences concerning the fair value assets themselves may be driving the real impact. Our results also indicate that it is fair value assets that are easiest to price (i.e., SFAS No. 157 Levels 1 and 2 assets) that have the most profound positive impact on forecasting outcomes. In addition, we also document that analyst bias is reduced by fair value measurements and that the financial crisis had a large impact on the relationship between fair value measurements and forecast accuracy for financial industry firms. In aggregate, these results suggest that a number of factors contribute to the relationship between fair value measurements and analyst forecast properties.